Four profit-change factors
01

Volume

02

Price and discount

03

Cost and fees

04

Product mix

05

Constraints: stock and promotion

Totals do not explain change

Stock-outs of high-margin products, growth of low-margin bundles, or channel fees can raise revenue and lower profit.

Reconcile revenue, refunds, costs, and fees first.

Build a comparable base

Prepare quantity, paid price, unit cost, refunds, and fees by product, channel, and period; mark launches, exits, and stock-outs.

Separate cost from mix.

Estimate volume, price, cost, and mix

Use sequential substitution or standard price/cost and disclose ordering assumptions.

Mix contribution is not causal proof.

Add inventory and campaign context

Stock-outs and promotions alter substitution, payment, and cost.

Drill into store, campaign, group, and available inventory.

Reconcile to detail

Test price, cost, launch, stock-out, and refund cases and ensure contributions tie to total change.

BI0 product and inventory analysis can participate; cost inputs and decomposition need verification.

Public references

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