Orders: promise, change, receipt
Variability: lead time and delay trend
Quality: return, inspection, rework
Impact: stock, production, customer orders
Resilience: alternatives and concentration
Risk combines likelihood and impact
A supplier often one day late with ample buffer may be less risky than a single-source part where one delay stops production.
Score performance, current exposure, and alternatives, then assign tier, owner, and due date.
Unify the purchase-order timeline
Record order, confirmation, promise, promise changes, shipment, ETA, and receipt and classify cause.
Do not overwrite promises; version them to measure change count and lead-time variability.
Connect delivery to business impact
Join open orders to material, inventory, plans, sales orders, and safety stock to estimate shortage date and scope.
Quality holds and rework reduce usable supply and belong in the same view.
Divide rules, statistics, and judgment
Rules catch overdue promises and low inventory; trends catch degrading lead time; AI can summarize signals and hypotheses. Keep people in critical stop or substitution decisions.
Sparse suppliers and shocks need external context and judgment.
Accept with real open orders
Test promise changes, partial receipts, quality holds, alternatives, and single-source parts. Measure warning lead time, scope, false positives, and action closure.
BI0 supply-chain, alert, and task directions can participate; connectors, forecasting, external risk data, and automated procurement require confirmation.
Public references
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